Updated Data and Methods for the 2023 UNAIDS HIV Estimates.

ABSTRACT: Each year, supported by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), country teams across the globe produce estimates that chart the state of their HIV epidemics. In 2023, HIV estimates were available for 174 countries, accounting for 99% of the global population, of which teams from 150 countries actively engaged in this process. The methods used to derive these estimates are developed under the guidance of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modeling, and Projections (www.epidem.org). Updates to these methods and epidemiological analyses that inform parameters and assumptions are documented in this supplement.

Facility-Based Indicators to Manage and Scale Up Cervical Cancer Prevention and Care Services for Women Living With HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa: a Three-Round Online Delphi Consensus Method.

BACKGROUND: Of women with cervical cancer (CC) and HIV, 85% live in sub-Saharan Africa, where 21% of all CC cases are attributable to HIV infection. We aimed to generate internationally acceptable facility-based indicators to monitor and guide scale up of CC prevention and care services offered on-site or off-site by HIV clinics. METHODS: We reviewed the literature and extracted relevant indicators, grouping them into domains along the CC control continuum. From February 2021 to March 2022, we conducted a three-round, online Delphi process to reach consensus on indicators. We invited 106 experts to participate. Through an anonymous, iterative process, participants adapted the indicators to their context (round 1), then rated them for 5 criteria on a 5-point Likert-type scale (rounds 2 and 3) and then ranked their importance (round 3). RESULTS: We reviewed 39 policies from 21 African countries and 7 from international organizations; 72 experts from 15 sub-Saharan Africa countries or international organizations participated in our Delphi process. Response rates were 34% in round 1, 40% in round 2, and 44% in round 3. Experts reached consensus for 17 indicators in the following domains: primary prevention (human papillomavirus prevention, n = 2), secondary prevention (screening, triage, treatment of precancerous lesions, n = 11), tertiary prevention (CC diagnosis and care, n = 2), and long-term impact of the program and linkage to HIV service (n = 2). CONCLUSION: We recommend that HIV clinics that offer CC control services in sub-Saharan Africa implement the 17 indicators stepwise and adapt them to context to improve monitoring along the CC control cascade.

The role of wastewater-based epidemiology for SARS-CoV-2 in developing countries: Cumulative evidence from South Africa supports sentinel site surveillance to guide public health decision-making.

The uptake of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for SARS-CoV-2 as a complementary tool for monitoring population-level epidemiological features of the COVID-19 pandemic in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) is low. We report on the findings from the South African SARS-CoV-2 WBE surveillance network and make recommendations regarding the implementation of WBE in LMICs. Eight laboratories quantified influent wastewater collected from 87 wastewater treatment plants in all nine South African provinces from 01 June 2021 to 31 May 2022 inclusive, during the 3rd and 4th waves of COVID-19. Correlation and regression analyses between wastewater levels of SARS-CoV-2 and district laboratory-confirmed caseloads were conducted. The sensitivity and specificity of novel 'rules' based on WBE data to predict an epidemic wave were determined. Amongst 2158 wastewater samples, 543/648 (85 %) samples taken during a wave tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 compared with 842 positive tests from 1512 (55 %) samples taken during the interwave period. Overall, the regression-co-efficient was 0,66 (95 % confidence interval = 0,6-0,72, R2 = 0.59), ranging from 0.14 to 0.87 by testing laboratory. Early warning of the 4th wave of SARS-CoV-2 in Gauteng Province in November-December 2021 was demonstrated. A 50 % increase in log copies of SARS-CoV-2 compared with a rolling mean over the previous five weeks was the most sensitive predictive rule (58 %) to predict a new wave. Our findings support investment in WBE for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in LMICs as an early warning tool. Standardising test methodology is necessary due to varying correlation strengths across laboratories and redundancy across testing plants. A sentinel site model can be used for surveillance networks without affecting WBE finding for decision-making. Further research is needed to identify optimal test frequency and the need for normalisation to population size to identify predictive and interpretive rules to support early warning and public health action.

Differential in-hospital mortality and intensive care treatment over time: Informing hospital pathways for modelling COVID-19 in South Africa.

There are limited published data within sub-Saharan Africa describing hospital pathways of COVID-19 patients hospitalized. These data are crucial for the parameterisation of epidemiological and cost models, and for planning purposes for the region. We evaluated COVID-19 hospital admissions from the South African national hospital surveillance system (DATCOV) during the first three COVID-19 waves between May 2020 and August 2021. We describe probabilities and admission into intensive care units (ICU), mechanical ventilation, death, and lengths of stay (LOS) in non-ICU and ICU care in public and private sectors. A log-binomial model was used to quantify mortality risk, ICU treatment and mechanical ventilation between time periods, adjusting for age, sex, comorbidity, health sector and province. There were 342,700 COVID-19-related hospital admissions during the study period. Risk of ICU admission was 16% lower during wave periods (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 0.84 [0.82-0.86]) compared to between-wave periods. Mechanical ventilation was more likely during a wave overall (aRR 1.18 [1.13-1.23]), but patterns between waves were inconsistent, while mortality risk in non-ICU and ICU were 39% (aRR 1.39 [1.35-1.43]) and 31% (aRR 1.31 [1.27-1.36]) higher during a wave, compared to between-wave periods, respectively. If patients had had the same probability of death during waves vs between-wave periods, we estimated approximately 24% [19%-30%] of deaths (19,600 [15,200-24,000]) would not have occurred over the study period. LOS differed by age (older patients stayed longer), ward type (ICU stays were longer than non-ICU) and death/recovery outcome (time to death was shorter in non-ICU); however, LOS remained similar between time periods. Healthcare capacity constraints as inferred by wave period have a large impact on in-hospital mortality. It is crucial for modelling health systems strain and budgets to consider how input parameters related to hospitalisation change during and between waves, especially in settings with severely constrained resources.

Estimating the effect of HIV on cervical cancer elimination in South Africa: Comparative modelling of the impact of vaccination and screening.

Background: In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched its initiative to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To inform global efforts for countries with high HIV and cervical cancer burden, we assessed the impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical cancer screening and treatment in South Africa, on cervical cancer and the potential for achieving elimination before 2120, considering faster HPV disease progression and higher cervical cancer risk among women living with HIV(WLHIV) and HIV interventions. Methods: Three independent transmission-dynamic models simulating HIV and HPV infections and disease progression were used to predict the impact on cervical cancer incidence of three scenarios for all women: 1) girls' vaccination (9-14 years old), 2) girls' vaccination plus 1 lifetime cervical screen (at 35 years), and 3) girls' vaccination plus 2 lifetime cervical screens (at 35 and 45 years) and three enhanced scenarios for WLHIV: 4) vaccination of young WLHIV aged 15-24 years, 5) three-yearly cervical screening of WLHIV aged 15-49 years, or 6) both. Vaccination assumed 90% coverage and 100% lifetime protection with the nonavalent vaccine (against HPV-16/18/31/33/45/52/58). Cervical cancer screening assumed HPV testing with uptake increasing from 45% (2023), 70% (2030) to 90% (2045+). We also assumed that UNAIDS 90-90-90 HIV treatment and 70% male circumcision targets are reached by 2030. We examined three elimination thresholds: age-standardised cervical cancer incidence rates below 4 or 10 per 100,000 women-years, and >85% reduction in cervical cancer incidence rate. We conducted sensitivity analyses and presented the median age-standardised predictions of outcomes of the three models (minimum-maximum across models). Findings: Girls' vaccination could reduce age-standardised cervical cancer incidence from a median of 47.6 (40.9-79.2) in 2020 to 4.5 (3.2-6.3) per 100,000 women-years by 2120, averting on average ∼4% and ∼46% of age-standardised cumulative cervical cancer cases over 25 and 100 years, respectively, compared to the basecase. Adding 2 lifetime screens helped achieve elimination over the century among all women (2120 cervical cancer incidence: 3.6 (1.9-3.6) per 100,000 women-years), but not among WLHIV (10.8 (5.3-11.6)), and averted more cumulative cancer cases overall (∼45% over 25 years and ∼61% over 100 years compared to basecase) than girls' vaccination alone. Adding three-yearly cervical screening among WLHIV (to girls' vaccination and 2 lifetime cervical screens) further reduced age-standardised cervical cancer incidence to 3.3 (1.8-3.6) per 100,000 women-years overall and to 5.2 (3.9-8.5) among WLHIV by 2120 and averted on average 12-13% additional cumulative cancer cases among all women and 21-24% among WLHIV than girls' vaccination and 2 lifetime cervical screens over 25 years or longer. Long-term vaccine protection and using the nonavalent vaccine was required for elimination. Interpretation: High HPV vaccination coverage of girls and 2 lifetime cervical screens could eliminate cervical cancer among women overall in South Africa by the end of the century and substantially decrease cases among all women and WLHIV over the short and medium term. Cervical cancer elimination in WLHIV would likely require enhanced prevention strategies for WLHIV. Screening of WLHIV remains an important strategy to reduce incidence and alleviate disparities in cervical cancer burden between women with and without HIV, despite HIV interventions scale-up. Funding: World Health Organization. National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, UK Medical Research Council. National Institute of Child Health and Human Development research. Cancer Association of South Africa. Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Fonds de recherche du Québec - Santé research.

The Impact of Early Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) for HIV on the Sensitivity of the Latest Generation of Blood Screening and Point of Care Assays.

INTRODUCTION: Rapid initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in early HIV infection is important to limit seeding of the viral reservoir. A number of studies have shown that if ART is commenced prior to seroconversion, the seroconversion may, or may not, occur. We aimed to assess whether seroreversion or no seroconversion occurs using samples collected during an early treatment study in South Africa. METHODS: We tested 10 longitudinal samples collected over three years from 70 blood donors who initiated ART after detection of acute or early HIV infection during donation screening on fourth- and fifth-generation HIV antibody and RNA assays, and three point of care (POC) rapid tests. Donors were allocated to three treatment groups: (1) very early, (2) early, and (3) later. Longitudinal samples were grouped into time bins post-treatment initiation. RESULTS: On all three high-throughput HIV antibody assays, no clear pattern of declining signal intensity was observed over time after ART initiation in any of the treatment initiation groups and 100% detection was obtained. The Abbott Determine POC assay showed 100% detection at all time points with no seroreversion. However, the Abbott ABON HIV1 and OraSure OraQuick POC assays showed lower proportions of detection in all time bins in the very early treated group, ranging from 50.0% (95% CI: 26.8-73.2%) to 83.1% (95% CI: 64.2-93.0%), and moderate detection rates in the early and later-treated groups. CONCLUSION: While our findings are generally reassuring for HIV detection when high-throughput serological screening assays are used, POC assays may have lower sensitivity for detection of HIV infection after early treatment. Findings are relevant for blood safety and other settings where POC assays are used.

Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of Omicron in South Africa.

We provide two methods for monitoring reinfection trends in routine surveillance data to identify signatures of changes in reinfection risk and apply these approaches to data from South Africa's severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic to date. Although we found no evidence of increased reinfection risk associated with circulation of the Beta (B.1.351) or Delta (B.1.617.2) variants, we did find clear, population-level evidence to suggest immune evasion by the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant in previously infected individuals in South Africa. Reinfections occurring between 1 November 2021 and 31 January 2022 were detected in individuals infected in all three previous waves, and there has been an increase in the risk of having a third infection since mid-November 2021.

Mortality during tuberculosis treatment in South Africa using an 8-year analysis of the national tuberculosis treatment register.

In 2011, the South African HIV treatment eligibility criteria were expanded to allow all tuberculosis (TB) patients lifelong ART. The impact of this change on TB mortality in South Africa is not known. We evaluated mortality in all adults (≥ 15 years old) treated for drug-susceptible TB in South Africa between 2009 and 2016. Using a Cox regression model, we quantified risk factors for mortality during TB treatment and present standardised mortality ratios (SMR) stratified by year, age, sex, and HIV status. During the study period, 8.6% (219,618/2,551,058) of adults on TB treatment died. Older age, male sex, previous TB treatment and HIV infection (with or without the use of ART) were associated with increased hazard of mortality. There was a 19% reduction in hazard of mortality amongst all TB patients between 2009 and 2016 (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.81 95%CI 0.80-0.83). The highest SMR was in 15-24-year-old women, more than double that of men (42.3 in 2016). Between 2009 and 2016, the SMR for HIV-positive TB patients increased, from 9.0 to 19.6 in women, and 7.0 to 10.6 in men. In South Africa, case fatality during TB treatment is decreasing and further interventions to address specific risk factors for TB mortality are required. Young women (15-24-year-olds) with TB experience a disproportionate burden of mortality and interventions targeting this age-group are needed.

Modelling the impact of prevention strategies on cervical cancer incidence in South Africa.

In 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) published a strategy to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health concern. In South Africa, despite having a national screening policy in place since 2000, diagnosed cervical cancer incidence has shown no signs of decline. We extend a previously developed individual-based model for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and human papillomavirus (HPV) infection to include progression to cervical cancer. The model accounts for future reductions in HIV incidence and prevalence and includes a detailed cervical cancer screening algorithm, based on individual-level data from the public health sector. We estimate the impact of the current prevention programme and alternative screening scenarios on cervical cancer incidence. The South African screening programme prevented 8600 (95%CI 4700-12 300) cervical cancer cases between 2000 and 2019. At current levels of prevention (status quo vaccination, screening, and treatment), age-standardised cervical cancer incidence will reduce from 49.4 per 100 000 women (95%CI 36.6-67.2) in 2020, to 12.0 per 100 000 women (95%CI 8.0-17.2) in 2120. Reaching WHO's prevention targets by 2030 could help South Africa reach elimination (at the 10/100 000 threshold) by 2077 (94% probability of elimination by 2120). Using new screening technologies could reduce incidence to 4.7 per 100 000 women (95%CI 2.8-6.7) in 2120 (44% probability of elimination at the 4/100 000 threshold). HPV vaccination and decreasing HIV prevalence will substantially reduce cervical cancer incidence in the long term, but improvements to South Africa's current screening strategy will be required to prevent cases in the short term. Switching to new screening technologies will have the greatest impact.

Modelling of HIV prevention and treatment progress in five South African metropolitan districts.

Globally, large proportions of HIV-positive populations live in cities. The Fast-Track cities project aims to advance progress toward elimination of HIV as a public health threat by accelerating the response in cities across the world. This study applies a well-established HIV transmission model to provide key HIV estimates for the five largest metropolitan districts in South Africa (SA): Cape Town, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Johannesburg and Tshwane. We calibrate the model to metro-specific data sources and estimate progress toward the 90-90-90 targets set by UNAIDS (90% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) diagnosed, 90% of those diagnosed on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and viral suppression in 90% of those on ART). We use the model to predict progress towards similarly defined 95-95-95 targets in 2030. In SA, 90.5% of PLHIV were diagnosed in 2018, with metro estimates ranging from 86% in Johannesburg to 92% in eThekwini. However, only 68.4% of HIV-diagnosed individuals nationally were on ART in 2018, with the proportion ranging from 56% in Tshwane to 73% in eThekwini. Fractions of ART users who were virally suppressed ranged from 77% in Ekurhuleni to 91% in eThekwini, compared to 86% in the whole country. All five metros are making good progress to reach diagnosis targets and all (with the exception of Ekurhuleni) are expected to reach viral suppression targets in 2020. However, the metros and South Africa face severe challenges in reaching the 90% ART treatment target.

Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020.

For 45 African countries/territories already reporting COVID-19 cases before 23 March 2020, we estimate the dates of reporting 1,000 and 10,000 cases. Assuming early epidemic trends without interventions, all 45 were likely to exceed 1,000 confirmed cases by the end of April 2020, with most exceeding 10,000 a few weeks later.

Birth outcomes following antiretroviral exposure during pregnancy: Initial results from a pregnancy exposure registry in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: In 2013, a pregnancy exposure registry and birth defects surveillance (PER/BDS) system was initiated in eThekwini District, KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), to assess the impact of antiretroviral treatment (ART) on birth outcomes. OBJECTIVES: At the end of the first year, we assessed the risk of major congenital malformations (CM) and other adverse birth outcomes (ABOs) detected at birth, in children born to women exposed to ART during pregnancy. METHOD: Data were collected from women who delivered at Prince Mshiyeni Memorial Hospital, Durban, from 07 October 2013 to 06 October 2014, using medicine exposure histories and birth outcomes from maternal interviews, clinical records and neonatal surface examination. Singleton births exposed to only one ART regimen were included in bivariable analysis for CM risk and multivariate risk analysis for ABO risk. RESULTS: Data were collected from 10 417 women with 10 517 birth outcomes (4013 [38.5%] HIV-infected). Congenital malformations rates in births exposed to Efavirenz during the first trimester (T1) (RR 0.87 [95% CI 0.12-6.4; p = 0.895]) were similar to births not exposed to ART during T1. However, T1 exposure to Nevirapine was associated with the increased risk of CM (RR 9.28 [95% CI 2.3-37.9; p = 0.002]) when compared to the same group. Other ABOs were more frequent in the combination of HIV/ART-exposed births compared to HIV-unexposed births (29.9% vs. 26.0%, adjusted RR 1.23 [1.14-1.31; p < 0.001]). CONCLUSION: No association between T1 use of EFV-based ART regimens and CM was observed. Associations between T1 NVP-based ART regimen and CM need further investigation. HIV- and ART-exposed infants had more ABOs compared to HIV-unexposed infants.

Estimated impact of human papillomavirus vaccines on infection burden: The effect of structural assumptions.

Mathematical models have been used to estimate the impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines on infection burden and cervical cancer. Models assume different mechanisms of naturally acquired immunity against re-infection, but processes of latency and reactivation of latent infection have not been explored. This study uses an individual-based dynamic model to simulate randomised controlled trials (RCTs) for vaccine efficacy, using different assumptions about naturally acquired immunity and viral latency after clearance of HPV infection. Model estimates of vaccine effectiveness are compared to those from published RCTs. We then estimate the impact of the bivalent vaccine on HPV-16 and -18 infection burden in South Africa under these different assumptions. When assuming no latency, simulated vaccine effectiveness overestimates results from RCTs and the model cannot match the observed difference in vaccine effectiveness between total vaccinated cohorts and more HPV-naïve cohorts. The reduction in HPV-16 and -18 burden by 2045, following roll-out of vaccination in 2014, does not depend on assumptions about natural immunity, but models that assume no latency predict ∼25% greater reduction in HPV-16 and -18 burden than models that include reactivation of latent infection for all men and women. Mathematical models that do not allow for reactivation of latent HPV infections may therefore overestimate the long-term impact of HPV vaccines.

Evaluation of the Performance of Three Biomarker Assays for Recent HIV Infection Using a Well-Characterized HIV-1 Subtype C Incidence Cohort.

Biomarkers for detecting early HIV infection and estimating HIV incidence should minimize false-recent rates (FRRs) while maximizing mean duration of recent infection (MDRI). We compared HIV subtypes B, E and D (BED) capture enzyme immunoassay (BED), Sedia limiting antigen (LAg) avidity enzyme immunoassay, and Bio-Rad avidity incidence (BRAI) assays using samples from Zimbabwean postpartum women infected with clade C HIV. We calculated MDRIs using 590 samples from 351 seroconverting postpartum women, and FRRs using samples from 2,825 women known to be HIV positive for >12 months. Antibody kinetics were more predictable with LAg and had higher precision compared with BED or BRAI. BRAI also exhibited more variability, and avidity reversal in some cases. For BED, LAg, and BRAI, used alone or with viral load, MDRI values in days were: BED-188 and 170 at normalized optical density (ODn) 0.8; LAg-104 and 100 at ODn cutoff 1.5; BRAI-135 and 134 at avidity index cutoff 30%. Corresponding FRRs were: BRAI 1.1% and 1.0% and LAg 0.57% and 0.35%: these were 3.8-10.9 times lower than BED values of 4.8% and 3.8%. BRAI and LAg have significantly lower FRRs and MDRIs than in published studies, and much lower than BED and could be used to estimate incidence in perinatal women and to measure population-level HIV incidence in HIV control operations in Africa.

Pooled PCR testing of dried blood spots for infant HIV diagnosis is cost efficient and accurate.

BACKGROUND: Access to qualitative HIV PCRs for early infant diagnosis (EID) is restricted in resource-limited settings due to cost. We hypothesised that pooling of dried blood spots (DBS), defined as combining multiple patient samples in a single test with subsequent individual testing of positive pools, would be cost saving while retaining clinical accuracy compared to individual patient testing. METHODS: Cost savings: A model was developed to simulate reagent and consumable cost saving of pooled compared to individual sample testing. Daily sample/result data of a public health laboratory in South Africa were used to illustrate outputs from the model. Samples were randomly allocated to pools and the process was repeated 1000 times to measure variation in estimates due to this stochasticity. Clinical accuracy: 1170 patient samples were tested using the Roche CAP/CTM Qual assay in pools of five 50 µl DBS. Negative pools comprised DBS previously tested in single reactions; positive pools included 1 positive sample. RESULTS: Pooling would have saved 64% of laboratory costs in 2015. The model is published as an R-based web tool, into which the user enters sample/positivity estimates and workflow management parameters to obtain cost saving estimates at an optimal pool size. Sensitivity of pooled testing was 98.8% overall; 100% for strongly reactive pools. One pool tested false positive which would not impact clinical specificity as individual patient testing is performed prior to reporting. CONCLUSIONS: Pooled PCR testing for EID remains accurate and dramatically reduces costs in settings with moderate to low prevalence rates and sufficient sample numbers.

Wing length and host location in tsetse (Glossina spp.): implications for control using stationary baits.

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that attempts to eradicate populations of tsetse (Glossina spp.) using stationary targets might fail because smaller, less mobile individuals are unlikely to be killed by the targets. If true, tsetse caught in stationary traps should be larger than those from mobile baits, which require less mobility on the part of the flies. RESULTS: Sampling tsetse in the Zambezi Valley of Zimbabwe, we found that the number of tsetse caught from stationary traps, as a percent of total numbers from traps plus a mobile vehicle, was ~5% for male G. morsitans morsitans (mean wing length 5.830 mm; 95% CI: 5.800-5.859 mm) and ~10% for females (6.334 mm; 95% CI: 6.329-6.338 mm); for G. pallidipes the figures were ~50% for males (6.830 mm; 95% CI: 6.821-6.838 mm) and ~75% for females (7.303 mm, 95% CI: 7.302-7.305 mm). As expected, flies of the smaller species (and the smaller sex) were less likely to be captured using stationary, rather than mobile sampling devices. For flies of a given sex and species the situation was more complex. Multivariable analysis showed that, for females of both species, wing lengths changed with ovarian age and the month, year and method of capture. For G. pallidipes, there were statistically significant interactions between ovarian age and capture month, year and method. For G. m. morsitans, there was only a significant interaction between ovarian age and capture month. The effect of capture method was, however, small in absolute terms: for G. pallidipes and G. m. morsitans flies caught on the mobile vehicle had wings only 0.24 and 0.48% shorter, respectively, than flies caught in stationary traps. In summary, wing length in field samples of tsetse varies with ovarian age, capture month and year and, weakly, with capture method. Suggestions that a target-based operation against G. f. fuscipes in Kenya caused a shift towards a smaller, less mobile population of tsetse, unavailable to the targets, failed to account for factors other than capture method. CONCLUSIONS: The results are consistent with the successful use of targets to eradicate populations of tsetse in Zimbabwe. Until further, more nuanced, studies are conducted, it is premature to conclude that targets alone could not, similarly, be used to eradicate G. f. fuscipes populations in Kenya.

Are associations between HIV and human papillomavirus transmission due to behavioural confounding or biological effects?

OBJECTIVES: Cohort studies have shown significant increased risk of HIV acquisition following human papillomavirus (HPV) detection and increased risk of new HPV detection in individuals with HIV infection, after adjusting for behavioural risk factors. This study uses an individual-based model to assess whether confounding sexual behaviour factors and network level effects can explain these associations between HIV and HPV infection status, without biological interactions. METHODS: The model simulates infection with 13 oncogenic HPV types and HIV. It allows for different relationship types, with heterogeneity in probabilities of concurrency and rates of partner change. No effect of prevalent HPV infection on HIV acquisition is assumed and vice versa. The model is calibrated to South African HIV and type-specific HPV prevalence data using a Bayesian approach. The model is used to simulate cohorts with quarterly HIV and HPV testing from 2000 to 2002. These simulated data are analysed using proportional hazard models. RESULTS: The mean of the unadjusted HRs of HIV acquisition following detection of an oncogenic HPV type calculated for each simulated cohort is 2.6 (95% CI 2.2 to 3.1). The mean of the unadjusted HRs for the effect of HIV on newly detected HPV is 2.5 (95% CI 2.2 to 2.8). Simulated associations between HIV and HPV infection status are similar to corresponding empirical estimates. In sensitivity analyses in which HIV and HPV were assumed to increase each other's transmission risk, simulated associations were stronger but not inconsistent with empirical estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Although we cannot rule out the possibility that associations between HIV and HPV transmission may be due in part to biological interactions, these results suggest that observed associations could be explained entirely by residual confounding by behavioural factors and network-level effects that observational studies cannot account for.

High human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence in South African adolescents and young women encourages expanded HPV vaccination campaigns.

The objectives of the study were to investigate prevalence of cervical human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes to inform HPV vaccination strategy in South Africa and to study factors associated with HPV prevalence. Sexually active, HIV-negative women, aged 16-22 years recruited from Soweto (n = 143) and Cape Town (n = 148) were tested for cervical HPV and other genital infections. Overall HPV prevalence was 66.7% (194/291) in young women. Cape Town women were more likely to have multiple HPV infections than the Soweto women (48.0%, 71/148 versus 35.0%, 50/143 respectively, p = 0.033) and probable HR-HPV types (34.5%, 51/148 versus 21.7%, 31/143 respectively, p = 0.022). The most frequently detected HPV types were HPV-16 (11.7%), HPV-58 (10.3%), HPV-51 (8.9%), HPV-66 (8.6%), HPV-18 and HPV-81 (7.6% each). HPV types targeted by the bivalent HPV vaccine (HPV-16/18) were detected in 18.6% (54/291) of women, while those in the quadrivalent vaccine (HPV-6/11/16/18) were detected in 24.7% (72/291) of women; and those in the nonavalent vaccine (HPV-6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58) were detected in 38.5% (112/291) of women. In a multivariable analysis, bacterial vaginosis remained significantly associated with HPV infection (OR: 4.0, 95% CI: 1.4-12.6). Women were more likely to be HPV positive if they had received treatment for STI during the past 6-months (OR: 3.4, 95% CI: 1.1-12.4) or if they had ever been pregnant (OR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.1-5.5). Compared to women who reported only one sexual partner, those with increased number of lifetime sex partners were more likely to have HPV (4-10 partners: OR: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.1-8.0). The high prevalence of HPV types targeted by the nonavalent HPV vaccine encourages the introduction of this vaccine and catch-up HPV vaccination campaigns in South Africa. The high burden of BV and concurrent STIs also highlights the need to improve the prevention and appropriate management of sexually-acquired and other genital tract infections in South African youth.

Understanding and acting on the developmental origins of health and disease in Africa would improve health across generations.

Data from many high- and low- or middle-income countries have linked exposures during key developmental periods (in particular pregnancy and infancy) to later health and disease. Africa faces substantial challenges with persisting infectious disease and now burgeoning non-communicable disease.This paper opens the debate to the value of strengthening the developmental origins of health and disease (DOHaD) research focus in Africa to tackle critical public health challenges across the life-course. We argue that the application of DOHaD science in Africa to advance life-course prevention programmes can aid the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals, and assist in improving health across generations. To increase DOHaD research and its application in Africa, we need to mobilise multisectoral partners, utilise existing data and expertise on the continent, and foster a new generation of young African scientists engrossed in DOHaD.

Short Communication: Heightened HIV Antibody Responses in Postpartum Women as Exemplified by Recent Infection Assays: Implications for Incidence Estimates.

Laboratory assays that identify recent HIV infections are important for assessing impacts of interventions aimed at reducing HIV incidence. Kinetics of HIV humoral responses can vary with inherent assay properties, and between HIV subtypes, populations, and physiological states. They are important in determining mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) for antibody-based assays for detecting recent HIV infections. We determined MDRIs for multi-subtype peptide representing subtypes B, E and D (BED)-capture enzyme immunoassay, limiting antigen (LAg), and Bio-Rad Avidity Incidence (BRAI) assays for 101 seroconverting postpartum women, recruited in Harare from 1997 to 2000 during the Zimbabwe Vitamin A for Mothers and Babies trial, comparing them against published MDRIs estimated from seroconverting cases in the general population. We also compared MDRIs for women who seroconverted either during the first 9 months, or at later stages, postpartum. At cutoffs (C) of 0.8 for BED, 1.5 for LAg, and 40% for BRAI, estimated MDRIs for postpartum mothers were 192, 104, and 144 days, 33%, 32%, and 52% lower than published estimates of 287, 152 and 298 days, respectively, for clade C samples from general populations. Point estimates of MDRI values were 7%-19% shorter for women who seroconverted in the first 9 months postpartum than for those seroconverting later. MDRI values for three HIV incidence biomarkers are longer in the general population than among postpartum women, particularly those who recently gave birth, consistent with heightened immunological activation soon after birth. Our results provide a caution that MDRI may vary significantly between subjects in different physiological states.